6.24.2012 Top Down

Seasonal

Equities

Big risk off move down on Thursday and a bit of a retracement on Friday.  No divergence swing.  Market structure on the daily not broken until we break 6.11-6.12 lows for now.  Working off the fractal made last week points to risk off.

Bonds

30 year fails to make a higher high using the 6.12 swing as a reference pointing to risk off or USDx bearishness.

COT

Fiber commercials continue to lessen their longs indicating bullish price ahead.

Ozzie looks the same.  

My cable spreadsheet does not appear to be accurate.  Looking at timing charts makes more sense to me as commercials would be lessening longs of an intermediate high.

All in all a muddled picture.  Maybe look for a Sunday gap down, fill the gap to have Judas in the early part of the week.  Then bearish trading to get to OTE or 79% retracement and then look for bulls to take over until August.  That is a heck of a lot of speculating though.