6.26.2012

Four trades today.  Two bad ones and then two good ones to make a grand total of $7.56.

Trade #1


Cable ran up to the 5600 figure as predicted.  It started reacting and trades down to 5588-5592.  SMT divergence and USDx divergence.  I think I'm a genius and figure I will just get in now because the OTE will probably be below my entry anyway so I'll get a better fill.  My fill is not that great at 5590 but what is a couple of pips right?  Price trades up to 5620 and stops me out for a 2% loss.

Trade #2


Price reacts and trades back down to the figure.  Another guy that follows ICT is in short at 5610.  Me too, it has to go down now, right?  USDx divergence is screaming at me.  Still have all the levels in play and the tools.  Price trades up to 5640 and stops me out.

On the chart I have a HTF resistance marked off at 5640.  Price trades up to 5649.  Drops 22 pips and gives a perfect OTE to go short right at New York open for nearly 70 pips.  The OTE was formed in about an hour for future reference.

There was an OTE formed before that.  Entry would have been about 5615 so even trading properly I would have probably been stopped out once.

Lessons

1. Wait for the OTE to form
2. Wait for higher time frame resistance to be reached.  Over and over again.  I waited for the 5600 figure which fits that bill but no OTE was formed.  Use the 15 minute chart.  Look for at least 20 pip drops.  All stuff we know but must be repeated.

Trade #3


4% down, my usual performance in London but I can't shake my bearish nature today.  I feel like they are forming the fractal low for the week and will go long.

So I switch to the fiber.  Nice little move down in London and OTE retracement in to New York.  I miss it by a few pips and get in at the 50% retracement 2505.  Watch in fall during New York.

As I wrote yesterday I'm targeting the 2450 level to go long.  Actually have my TP limit at 2445.  This would cover all my losses from this morning and then I would go long.  While I'm checking the charts I accidentally hit my mouse which moves the stop loss order to the present price and immediately stops me out at 2464.

Looking at the chart you will see it wasn't the worst thing as price starts to retrace.  Not sure if I would have bailed out of the trade at a worse exit or weathered the retrace.

Trade #4


Another OTE forms so I go short again at 2492.  Price needs to trade down to 2470 for me to break even.  I set my TP for 2445 again with a twice as big limit order.  One to get me out of my short and one to go long.  As price trades down to 2460 it starts to retrace.  Going in to 15:00 GMT I tighten up my stop as the number one goal is to break even for the day.

Price hits my stops and I mitigate the losses from earlier.  Up since 1:00 AM and exhausted I cancel the long order.  At that point I did not think it would make it down there.  Thought they were saving it for London open tomorrow.  Price trades down to 2441 and bounces.  I had signed out of my trade station.  I signed back in but by that time it was trading in the 60's.  I set a limit order for 2450 but it never hit.  Price traded back up to the 2500 figure.

Lesson:  Don't sign out of your trade station until you are absolutely sure you are done trading.

Not really frustrated because I still like to see my analysis spot on.  Could have been an extremely profitable day.  Could have been an extremely unprofitable one too if I hadn't kept pressing.

Next time...

6.26.2012

I need to write all this down because when I wake up at 1:00AM I never know what I'm doing.

If this week has a reversal in it and follows anything like the normal buy template we should make the weekly low by Tuesday's London open and trade up the rest of the week (and potentially up until August!).

Cable


I used the low before the big push up on 6.15 to draw my fib from.  That gives an OTE of 5565.  79% retracement was hit today with the low of 5537.

If the banks do not need to sweep below yesterday's low drawing a fib on this latest swing up gives an OTE of 5550, a level price spent a lot of time at today.

London open could see a Judas down to one of these levels and a reversal.  If I were to pick between the cable or fiber to go long I would pick the cable.

If price wants to have a down day and miss the London open for the weekly low we may Judas up to 5600.

Fiber


Drawing a fib from the low made after the May slide to the monthly high has us sitting right north of the OTE level of 2423.  Within the 62-79% retracement is a HTF support level of 2450.

Price is currently traded up to the 2520 level so it is quite a ways a way for a Judas but we have seen them move it further than 70 pips.  So we may have a Judas up and just trade down for the daily move to support.    Some levels to watch would be around the 2550.  Weekly high is 2557 and 2549.

This would allow the banks to clear out any stops below today's low of 2470 before turning the ship around for a long climb up.

6.25.2012

4 hr Cable/Fiber SMT

4 hr Ozzie/Kiwi SMT

6.25.2012

Fiber trading right at the 2500 figure.  Right above that 2450 magical support.  4 times it has attempted to go below.  I'm wondering if it will charge down there during LO as the Judas and our reversal takes place.  Depending on what price looks like between now and tonight I might be doing London open tonight.

6.25.2012

Been trying to get short all day.  Price action is just too choppy right now.  Got in an out on both the fiber and cable for a small $100 profit.  They will probably release it soon but price is also trading at S2 for the fiber and S1 for the cable so not really a good time to go short.

Now that Friday's low (5555) has been broken on the cable I'm wondering if they will reach lower.  However, I would have liked to see it break with more conviction today and that's why I got out of the shorts.  So now I'm wondering if they just cleared out stops below Friday low to take it higher since we are at an OTE on the 4 hour chart.

Cable and Fiber Top Down

Cable

Swing high fractal made last Wednesday.  Price has traded down to 5580.  May be looking for an OTE level of 5466 to 5379.  4 hour support at about the 5450 level which is close to the actual OTE level of 5420.  Price may trade up to 5600 or 5630 before moving south if it is going to hit the OTE levels.

Market flow is short.  Right now my bias is bearish but only for about the next 100-200 pips.

Fiber


Last fractal was a swing high and market flow is short so I have short bias on the fiber.  Using the same logic above price may be reaching for the 2460-2380 levels.  OTE is right at 2422 and we have support drawn from the daily chart at 2450 price may be reaching for.  That's only 100 pips below Friday's close of 2566 so it wouldn't take long to get there.  Have to consider the possibility that they may be reaching for May lows to take out any stops before reversing too.

6.24.2012 Top Down

Seasonal

Equities

Big risk off move down on Thursday and a bit of a retracement on Friday.  No divergence swing.  Market structure on the daily not broken until we break 6.11-6.12 lows for now.  Working off the fractal made last week points to risk off.

Bonds

30 year fails to make a higher high using the 6.12 swing as a reference pointing to risk off or USDx bearishness.

COT

Fiber commercials continue to lessen their longs indicating bullish price ahead.

Ozzie looks the same.  

My cable spreadsheet does not appear to be accurate.  Looking at timing charts makes more sense to me as commercials would be lessening longs of an intermediate high.

All in all a muddled picture.  Maybe look for a Sunday gap down, fill the gap to have Judas in the early part of the week.  Then bearish trading to get to OTE or 79% retracement and then look for bulls to take over until August.  That is a heck of a lot of speculating though.

6.24.2012 USDx Top Down

USDx usually makes an intermediate high around the middle of June and trades down with a small retracement happening near the end of June in to July.  Price then will show weakness for the next quarter usually making the yearly low around the beginning of August.

Price traded up to 83.31 resistance level drawn off the weekly chart and bounced trading down to 81.18.  Last week price trades up to the 50 fib level.  62% retracement is at 82.68, OTE 82.89, and 79% is 83.10.

Market structure was broken when the 6.18 swing high was broken last Thursday.  Market flows all point to longs for USDx.

6.22.2012 Fiber Trade Review

Shorted fiber at 2580 and out at 2530.  Eliminated yesterday's loss.  Still ended down for the week but only about 0.75%.

Fiber trades up in to a HTF resistance.

Great example of SMT as fiber makes a higher high but cable refuses to follow.

How it looks on a line chart of closing prices.

USDx divergence.

There was some Type I stochastic divergence on the one hour and 15 minute charts.

Took profit at 30 pips and tried to reach for the 20 level to sweep below daily low.  On this feed it got to 214 level so it probably only got down to 22 with IB.  Ended up tightening stop during 1500GMT and finally closing everything out at 2530.  

6.21.2012

Bias has switched to bearish obviously.  With today's big range, expected profit taking, and tomorrow being Friday I doubt there will be much for shorting opportunities.

Will expect a Judas up at the beginning of next week and then a continued slide throughout the week.

6.21.2012 Trade Review

So easy to see a reversal coming after it happens.  Unfortunately my bullish bias has cost my account 5% today.  Plus the 1% yesterday means I'm down 6% for the week.

The only positive I can hold on to after this week is that I am still a net profitable trader since starting full time.

I work so hard for the profits but the losses wipe them out so easily.  It should be the other way around.

I don't really understand.  I would think a failure swing higher would indicate weakness for the dollar.  Maybe it just means a reversal for USDx.

6.20.2012 Fiber Trade

Cut risk to 1% and am attempting to mitigate earlier loss.  Long on the fiber at 2654.  Took half off at 2704.

UPDATE:  Stopped out on 2nd 1/2 at 2674.  1% of loss regained through this trade.

Still sitting at 1% down for the week.

6.20.2012 Ozzie Trade

How can you go wrong going long on the Ozzie?  Look at that daily chart since the end of May.

New York open retrace.  Long at 0189.  FOMC news stops me out.  2% loss.  Whatever.

UPDATE


Had the banks not run the stops my first take profit on the ozzie would have just been hit.  Whatever.

6.19.2012

Looking for longs today, especially the cable or fiber which would have lined up in the pivot buy zone.  But price just never retraced enough.  And one lesson learned since going full time is it is not worth trying to catch these moves without an OTE retracement.

6.18.2012 Cable Trade Review

Stopped out at 5682 for a very small profit for the day.  I probably should have closed it sooner as I realized I was trading against the higher time frame and the weekly low was probably made today.  I was more interested in learning to keep my discipline and keep a trade open past 1500GMT.

Fiber falls today while cable does not follow for a bullish SMT divergence.  4hr chart:

6.18.2012 Cable Trade

Screwed up my a take-profit limit order thinking I was adjusting my stop loss and ended up taking a .5% loss this morning.

Back in short at 5688.  Took half off at 30 pips and moved my stop loss to BE +5 pips to make sure earlier loss will be mitigated.  Next take profit is daily low (and near the ADR value) of 56365.

This is a New York open OTE retrace with SMT and USDx divergence.  Also Type II divergence could be found on the 15 minute chart.  A/D divergence on the 1 hour chart but it was difficult to find that before the trade.

Only 1% risk based on cutting my risk after a loss.  I consistently make a loss for my first trade of the week but I am lessening the impact and am mitigating the losses more quickly.

6.17.2012 Top Down

Week Review

No trades today.  I wanted cable to trade down to the 5500 figure to go long but it didn't quite down there.  Volatility is pretty high today and I expect the first part of next week due to this weekend's European news.  Some brokers are shutting down off hour trading.

Pretty good week.  Profitable again.  Will look to increase risk to 2% more constantly.

6.14.2012 Are you kidding me??

I sit through all that chop.  I let price come within 2 pips of my stop and don't blink an eye.  I know it will continue up.  I trade like a pro.

Then I start thinking.  That's where I get in trouble.

I know this is a newbie statement but it is like the banks are watching me.  As soon as I pull the plug on the trade they immediately shoot price up.  Hilarious.

6.14.2012

Closed the remainder out at 5532.  Saw that fiber had hit an OTE to go short off some resistance so though cable might go down in sympathy.  Might be completely wrong but this trade never turned in to the daily ranger I wanted it to anyway.  1% gain.

6.14.2012 Cable Trade

Price starting to coil a bit.  Only about 10 pips above my stop loss.  Just not a rangy day.  Will probably hit my stop loss and result will be a small gain.

Price traded up to the 50 level and it's going to be a race to see which figure gets hit, 5500 or 5600.  Looks like 5500 will win.

6.14.2012 Cable Trade

As posted before I was looking to enter long if price came down to the 5500 figure.

Price traded down to the figure but I couldn't find any type of confirmation of a reversal using SMT or USDx divergence.  The only confirmation I could find was a Type II stochastic divergence using the second swing low formed out of London which is a bit shaky.  I had to drill down to a 5 minute chart on both before I finally found fiber starting to distribute while cable was still accumulating.

By that time price was trading near 5515.  I waited until it got to 5512 and entered long.  Not much I could do about the entry.  I didn't want to enter just off the figure and retracement of the London move so I had to wait.  Cost me 12 pips.  Also I only entered 1% risk on this one.

Price has now traded up to 5542 and I took half the position off.  Going to leave on the other half for 1500 GMT or 5600 figure.

6.14.2012

Only thing I'm stalking at the moment is a possible long on the cable at 5500 figure.  Currently trading at 5535.

6.13.2012 Fiber Trade

2nd take profit hit at 2577.  Closed position out.

Note that if I had not had a losing trade to start yesterday I would have kept a portion of my 2% risk trade on for this take profit from yesterday.  Increasing my profit and decreasing commission costs.  Nobody trades perfectly this is just something to keep in mind.

UPDATE:  Left some on the table as price continued to trade up to (as of 15:39 GMT) the 2610 level.

6.13.2012 Fiber Trade Review

I do not like that I keep trading the fiber, cable is much less sloppy right now.  Nonetheless fiber is giving me setups so I take them.

Long at 2520 this morning.  OTE from London low to New York high.  Confluences include today's Asian session high, yesterday's Asian session high, yesterday's high, and Monday's CPP to name a few.

Yesterday price traded up to 2528 and bounced around the 20 level for the rest of the day.  London trades over it.  Resistance becomes support and New York trades back down to it.

Only 1% risk.  SMT and USDx divergence for confirmation.

Stop loss now at break even.  We'll see if it can push up to 2580 which is resistance on the daily chart, 62% retracement for the week, ADR, and S2.

6.12.2012 Fiber Trade Result

Price hit my stop loss at 2485 last night.  It did end up climbing to 2552 today but my first goal was to mitigate yesterday's loss and protect trading capital.  This is consistent with my trading plan which allows for another trade intra-day if the first trade was a loss.

6.12.2012 Fiber Trade Review

Interesting day.  It would appear that I did not learn my lesson from last week's trading but in fact I'm OK with what happened today.

I went long on the fiber at the 2490 level.  This was simply an OTE from the London move and had SMT and USDx divergence.  Price moved up to within 2 pips of my first take profit but then came back to stop me out at break even.

With the divergences still there I re-entered.  However, much like last Wednesday price ran all the way down to the 2450 level stopping me out for a 2% loss (I demo traded off the 80 level and when price ran down to the 50 I went long on my real account.  Click here for a review:   June 6, 2012 Fiber Trade Review)

I re-entered long at 2450 and have mitigated the 2% loss.  2/3 of the trade is still open with the stop loss now at 2485.  I am trying to reach for the daily high at 2530 and the next resistance level of 2580.

One thing I am mulling over is having only trades that are directly reacting to HTF support and resistance levels be 2% risk and having trades such as a New York open re-trace that is reacting to implied support and resistance be 1% risk.

6.11.2012 Cable

Missed this one.  My favorite trade, New York open retrace.  Sat there and watched it hit and move down.  Set my limit order at 5560 and it never came back up.  Set it at 5555 and no go.  Set it at 5550 and still couldn't get price to hit.  Felt like I would have been chasing price so I'll wait for the next bus to come by.

6.10.2012 Sunday Opening

Wow, I guess the banks like the bailout deal.  Fiber trading at 2650 level.  Gap up of nearly 150 pips.

Cable gapped up but only a fraction at between 30-50 pips (using Oanda's early feed and spreads are huge).

6.10.2012 Aussie and Kiwi Top Down

Seasonal tendency shows a low being made in May and a slow climb up in to August.

(to be continued)...